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The debate about the Europe is basically a debate between two starkly opposing ideas: Breakup or full fiscal union.
In a new report, Citi's Willem Buiter argues that there's a big 3rd outcome that hardly anyone is talking about.
Says Buiter: "We suggest a third alternative as the most likely eventual outcome: ‘You Break it, You Own it Europe’."
Basically, politics will make the fully federal Europe an impossible dream.
And the cost of breaking up the EU (or leaving the EU, in the case of a single country) is just too high.
So as for this 'You Break It, You Own It Europe,' the idea is to allow a European system that allows for sovereign defaults and restructuring in a way that doesn't necessitate contagion risk.
YBIYOIE consists of the minimum institutional, fiscal and regulatory set-up to ensure
survival of the EA, including:
So what does this mean specifically? Buiter identifies 4 key things:
Finally, Buiter proposes three additional mechanisms, which are turning the EFSF into its own official counterparty to the ECB, raiding the resources of the European Investment Bank (an existing institution with lending capacity that doesn't ever get discussed).
And finally, something called Enhanced Cooperation, to deal with recalcitrant nations like Finland.
Here's his full comment on that:
As pointed out in Buiter (2011), even if not all 17 Euro Area member states ratify the
enhanced and enlarged EFSF later this year, an enhanced and enlarged EFSF can
still be created, if necessary, by the ‘coalition of the willing’ through Enhanced
Cooperation. Enhanced Cooperation is an EU procedure where a minimum of nine
EU member states are allowed to establish advanced integration or cooperation in
an area within EU structures but without the other members being involved. The
arrangements cannot violate the Treaty, of course, and they must be open to any
EU member wishing to join. Although as of March 2011, Enhanced Cooperation had
only been used in the fields of divorce law and patents, but it seems purpose-made
for overcoming the problem of a small Euro area member state vetoing EFSF
enhancement or enlargement.
This case could soon apply to Finland for the second Greek bail-out package which
will be carried out under the umbrella of the EFSF.
Buiter concludes:
Progress towards YBIYOIE will not be fast. Agreement needs to be found domestically in EA member countries and between the member states. Laws have to be written or rewritten and institutions will have to be built. Resolution of the current crisis will take up much of the EA political and institutional capacity in the near-term. Policymakers will not take the most direct route to YBIYOIE. The periodic
crises that we expect until a full resolution of the EA sovereign and banking crisis will trigger responses according to what is most opportune at that time, rather than in the long-term interest of the EA. But even resolution of the current crisis will involve substantial further private sector burden sharing which we expect to be a major element of YBIYOIE.
It's almost enough to make not make you want to jump off a bridge.
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The heavily overloaded MV Spice Islander sank off the Tanzanian island of Zanzibar killing at least 163 people and leaving more than 100 others as yet unaccounted for.
According to the BBC, the ferry had been traveling between Unguja and Pemba, two very popular tourist destinations, bringing people back from post-Ramadan holiday.
Local rescue officials are overwhelmed and asking for international help. Survivors are being ferried by privately owned boats back to the mainland while rescuers continue their search in the rough seas.
Bodies continue to wash up on shore, so the death toll is expected to rise, as relatives wait for names of the dead to be released.
Local helicopter pilot Neels van Ejik told the BBC:
"We found the survivors holding onto mattresses and fridges and anything that could float. It's hard to tell the exact numbers, but I'd say there were more than 200 survivors in the water and some bodies too," he told the BBC.
"By then, there were a few boats that had made their way out. They were looking for survivors, but although the sea wasn't so rough, the waves were high so it was difficult for them to spot them.
The ferry was so overloaded when it left the Unguja dock that many passengers refused to board as a result.
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